Treasury Tracker

1. Tail: stop vs snap. The high yield (stop) against the when-issued yield (snap) is usually the most important number. Stopping below the WI means the auction was overbid; stopping above it (a tail) means it was underbid. About 0 bp is "on the screws", ~3 bp is a significant tail, and 4–6 bp would be disastrous.
2. Bid-to-cover: the trend. The level matters less than the direction against recent auctions. A falling BTC is an early sign that demand is drying up; below 1x would be a failed auction.
3. Who bought it. Indirect bidders (the usual foreign-demand gauge) and direct bidders (domestic). Whatever they don't take, primary dealers must absorb. A jump in dealer takedown means dealers were left holding the bag.
4. Then look for the real foreign share on the Investor Classes page. The indirect share overstates foreign demand.

Framework: James Lavish, CFA — The Informationist, Issue 111, "Can a Treasury Auction Fail?" (Apr 14, 2024). Full definitions on the Glossary page.