Description
This chart visualizes Bitcoin's price history against a Power Law model. Although Bitcoin's path is not guaranteed to follow any specific trend, its price has historically been contained within this predictable long-term channel. This model helps frame Bitcoin's volatile movements in the context of its long-term growth.
"All models are wrong, but some are useful." - George E. P. Box
Description
This histogram shows the distribution of Bitcoin's price relative to its Power Law trend. The pronounced left skew reveals a key characteristic: Bitcoin has historically spent significantly more time below the trendline than above it. This suggests that its long-term growth is driven by short, explosive periods of overperformance, while the majority of the time is spent in consolidation.
It's often quoted that if someone misses Bitcoin's "10 best days" for a given year, then they would miss out on substantial returns. This observation seems to align with that thinking.